惊天解密

香港打鼓岭一家今年新开业的持牌宠物寄宿及训练中心8月20日发生致命意外，一名33岁女负责人工作期间被一只寄养的唐狗（粤港澳地区对本地犬种的称呼）袭击，当场不治身亡。

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    Tian Xuan Photo: Courtesy of Tian
In economic theory, "overcapacity" - for which no universally accepted definition exists - is inherently a recurring feature of the market economy's dynamic "balance - imbalance - rebalance" cycle. The Western narrative that equates China's sizable production capacity directly with "overcapacity" defies economic logic and rigor; in reality, it represents a politicization of trade and economic issues.
First, it confuses the concepts of "capacity scale" and "overcapacity." China's overall industrial capacity utilization remains within a reasonable range. Periodically lower utilization in traditional sectors reflects a normal adjustment as these industries advance toward high-end, intelligent, and green production. Ample capacity in certain emerging industries is precisely what meets surging global demand for high-end, smart, and green solutions. Therefore, equating scale with excess is typical equivocation.
Second, "overcapacity" itself is a dynamic feature of market economies, where no fixed balance persists indefinitely. Judging capacity based solely on static snapshots violates basic economic principles.
Third, it is erroneous to simplistically link trade surpluses or industrial subsidies to overcapacity, while ignoring the macro context of global specialization and cross-border savings-investment structures. It also disregards the reality that reasonable capacity utilization ranges differ across economies at varying stages of development. Imposing a single standard on China is neither scientific nor rigorous.
China's global competitiveness in green technology stems from sustained, large-scale investment in innovation, a comprehensive industrial and supply chain system, massive application scenarios, and intense market competition - not from alleged government subsidies. After decades of long-cycle R&D, Chinese industries have achieved breakthroughs in core technologies such as power batteries and photovoltaic modules.
During the 14th Five-Year Plan period (2021-25), China's nationwide R&D spending grew at an average annual rate of 10 percent. Economies of scale have continuously diluted production costs. China's ultra-large domestic market and full-chain supporting ecosystem provide an optimal testing ground for new technologies - from pilot verification to mass deployment. With more than 200 million market entities driving fierce competition, enterprises are constantly compelled to cut costs, raise efficiency, and upgrade products, thereby forging dual advantages in price and performance that we see today.
There is no direct causation between subsidies and overcapacity. Industrial subsidies are a globally recognized practice, typically aimed at correcting market failures and advancing critical technologies. China's subsidies are granted on an impartial basis to all types of market entities, in full compliance with WTO rules, and have not triggered disorderly capacity expansion.
Currently, capacity utilization in China's green industries remains within a reasonable range. Support is primarily directed toward R&D, technological breakthroughs, and consumer-side incentives through market-based mechanisms - not toward fueling overcapacity. Crucially, China's high-quality capacity has reduced the global cost of green transition, representing an opportunity rather than a shock to world development.
Against the backdrop of global carbon neutrality goals, labeling China's new energy capacity as "overcapacity" is entirely untenable. According to the International Energy Agency, global data center electricity consumption will approach 1 trillion kWh by 2030, with 40 percent of incremental power needing to come from renewables. Demand for wind power, photovoltaics, power batteries, and related green energy solutions remains far from saturated - so claims of "overcapacity" are groundless.
China's capacity plays a central role in advancing the global energy transition. Over the past decade, the levelized cost of electricity from wind and solar globally has fallen by more than 60 percent and 80 percent respectively - improvements largely attributable to Chinese innovation and manufacturing, which have directly lowered the cost threshold for worldwide green transformation.
The US journal Science crowned the global renewable energy surge led by China among its Top 10 Breakthroughs of 2025. Leveraging its technological and scale advantages, China is well positioned to supply abundant, high-quality green energy equipment and solutions, meet fast-growing renewable demand from data centers, industrial production, and other sectors, and tangibly support countries in implementing the Paris Agreement. In short, China is a pivotal force driving the global low-carbon transition.
The so-called "China Shock 2.0" is fundamentally a protectionist narrative rooted in Cold War thinking - a politically motivated claim inconsistent with facts. The rapid development of China's modern industries is driven by innovation and sustained institutional reform, not by dumping allegedly excess capacity abroad. Rather than posing a shock, China's industrial progress offers a "China Opportunity 2.0." It delivers multiple dividends to global development - innovation dividends, market dividends, and growth dividends - while injecting stability and vitality into global industrial chains through an open and win-win approach.
China's high-quality green and high-tech exports have tangibly accelerated the global green transition and reduced production costs worldwide. Meanwhile, as the world's largest goods consumption market and the second-largest importer for 17 consecutive years, China provides enormous market opportunities for economies around the globe. Moreover, China's open-source collaboration and technology sharing in frontier fields such as artificial intelligence and the digital economy enable developing countries to bridge the digital divide at lower cost and share in the benefits of the technological revolution.
The facts demonstrate that China's emerging technologies and products represent a "China Opportunity 2.0" - driving global technological progress, accelerating the green transition, improving livelihoods across nations, and bolstering the industrialization of developing economies. This open and mutually beneficial cooperation stands as the true engine of global economic recovery and sustainable development. 
This article is compiled based on an interview with Tian Xuan, dean at the Guanghua School of Management and Boya Distinguished Professor of Finance of Peking University. [email protected]

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三 | 事发地为打鼓岭坪原路坪洋新村111号“Pawsgate毛界限宠物酒店及犬只训练中心”。据香港警方通报及闭路电视片段显示，当日14时许，女事主完成喂食工作后，涉事犬只拒不入笼，并突然向她发起袭击，冲突持续约一分钟。人犬随后纠缠移动至监控范围外的场外草地。直至16时12分，有人发现女事主倒卧草地，救护人员到场后证实其已离世。边界警区助理指挥官（行动及刑事）警司陈启泽及边界警区重案组高级督察谭启轩表示，中心的闭路电视拍下整个施袭过程，人员到场时涉嫌施袭的唐狗仍在死者倒卧位置附近徘徊，女死者的头、颈、下颚及双臂均有不同程度的撕裂和由动物造成的咬痕，死者死因以及致命伤需法医剖尸检验后才能确定。据悉，涉事宠物中心为合法持牌机构，今年1月才开始营业。事发时中心内连同涉案唐狗共有7只狗和事主一人，仅肇事犬只滞留场外，另外6只狗均在笼内。涉案唐狗约1岁、雄性、长约1米、重约30公斤，本月11日才由义工带到中心寄养，等待领养。案发后，法医、渔护署及爱护动物协会人员先后到场取证处置，涉事唐狗已被渔护署带走扣留观察。

四 | 案件交由重案组调查，警方将全面检视中心作业流程、饲养规范与管理制度，核查是否存在疏忽违规，还原案件全貌。根据香港现行法例规定，体重达20公斤及以上的犬只均被界定为“大型犬只”，本地常见的唐狗及各类混种犬成年后，大多可达到该重量标准，受相关犬只管理条例监管。若大型狗只出现攻击性行为致人伤亡，或主人未尽到妥善管控义务，均可能面临严厉的法律制裁。来源：中国新闻网、广州日报编辑 李扬责编 夏丽娟审核 丁伟